Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models

Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models

Maximum error tolerances previously calculated using analytic methods are not reflective of the observed precision of input-output calculations. This analysis of the 1967 input-output tables demonstrates that input data uncertainties combine or cancel one another in such a way as to hold error magni...

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Veröffentlicht in:The review of economics and statistics 1988-11, Vol.70 (4), p.708-712
Hauptverfasser: Bullard, Clark W., Sebald, Anthony V.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Aggregation
Confidence interval
Economic models
Economic statistics
Economic theory
Economic uncertainty
Input output
Input output analysis
Input output models
Magnification
Modeling
Monte Carlo simulation
Sensitivity analysis
Standard deviation
Statistical analysis
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:Maximum error tolerances previously calculated using analytic methods are not reflective of the observed precision of input-output calculations. This analysis of the 1967 input-output tables demonstrates that input data uncertainties combine or cancel one another in such a way as to hold error magnification to acceptable levels. The results seem to be insensitive to the level of aggregation.
ISSN:0034-6535
1530-9142
DOI:10.2307/1935838