The Duration of Welfare Spells

Probability distributions for the duration of welfare spells are estimated. The principle guiding the work is that a recipient won't exit from welfare if the expected utility on welfare exceeds the expected utility off welfare. Our analysis indicates that while the majority of welfare spells are of short duration, a nontrivial minority of spells are quite long. Those recipients with long spells are found to differ in predictable ways from those experiencing brief spells. This suggests that strategies to move women off welfare are unnecessary in many cases, and should be targeted on those most likely to be long-term recipients.