Simplified model to predict the thermal demand profile of districts

•Simplified simulation tool was developed to predict the heating demand profile of a district.•The model considers the impact shading, internal heat generation, thermal mass on the load.•The model was applied to three different districts (residential, office and mixed).•Prediction of the model was validated with the prediction made by a detailed simulation tool. Extensive research works have been carried out over the past few decades in the development of simulation tools to predict the thermal performance of buildings. These validated tools have been used in the design of the building and its components. However, limited simulation tools have been developed for modeling of district energy systems, which can potentially be a very laborious and time-consuming process. Besides many associated limitations, providing a realistic demand profile of the district energy systems is not a straightforward task due to high number of parameters involved in predicting a detail demand profile. This paper reports the development of a simplified model for predicting the thermal demand profile of a district heating system. The paper describes the method used to develop two types of simplified models to predict the thermal load of a variety of buildings (residential, office, attached, detached, etc.). The predictions were also compared with those made by the detailed simulation models. The simplified model was then utilized to predict the energy demand of a variety of districts types (residential, commercial or mix), and its prediction accuracy was compared with those made by detailed model: good agreement was observed between the results.