Using scenarios to develop crisis managers: Applications of scenario planning and scenario-based training

The problem and the solution. Since the events of September 11, 2001, and Hurricane Katrina during the summer of 2005, the words crisis and disaster evoke images of families stranded on causeways turned islands, surrounded by what little property they could carry; houses smashed by killing winds; and skyscrapers crumbling out of the sky. Disastrous events, such as fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, terrorist incidents, and chemical spills, cause the loss of resources, destruction of property, financial hardship, and death. During these events, local, state, and federal governments commit large numbers of resources, time, and money to mitigate the consequences of the disaster.To manage the response to these events, leaders of public safety organizations and agencies such as fire and police departments, emergency medical services, and health-care organizations, public works departments, private industry, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) descend on the disaster site.These leaders are required to make high consequence decisions with incomplete or inaccurate information, ill-defined goals, and the pressures of time and a constantly changing situation by drawing on their training and experience. This article positions scenario planning and scenario-based training as two cutting-edge methods for organizational leaders to understand better their environments so as to avoid disastrous events and to put in place efficient and effective plans for coping if disaster should strike.