Dispersal of Eastern King Prawn larvae in a western boundary current: New insights from particle tracking

Patterns in larval transport of coastal species have important implications for species connectivity, conservation, and fisheries, especially in the vicinity of a strengthening boundary current. An Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator particle tracking model was used to assess the potential dispersal of Eastern King Prawn (EKP) larvae Melicertus (Penaeus) plebejus, an important commercial and recreational species in Eastern Australia. Particles were exposed to a constant natural mortality rate, and temperature‐dependent growth (degree‐days) was used to determine the time of settlement. Forward and backward simulations were used to identify the extent of larval dispersal from key source locations, and to determine the putative spawning regions for four settlement sites. The mean dispersal distance for larvae was extensive (~750–1,000 km before settlement), yet the northern spawning locations were unlikely to contribute larvae to the most southern extent of the EKP range. There was generally great offshore dispersal of larvae, with only 2%–5% of larvae on the continental shelf at the time of settlement. Our particle tracking results were combined with existing site‐specific reproductive potentials to identify the relative contributions of larvae from key source locations. Although mid‐latitude sites had only moderate reproductive potential, they delivered the most particles to the southern coast and are probably the most important sources of larval EKP for the two southern estuaries. Our modelling suggests that mesoscale oceanography is a strong determinant of recruitment success of the EKP, and highlights the importance of both larval dispersal and reproductive potential for understanding connectivity across a species’ range.