Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, China, and the surrounding area

Taiyuan is a city in Shanxi Province, China, and possesses serious seismic hazard. In this study, we constructed a time-dependent seismic hazard model for Taiyuan and the surrounding area based on several major-earthquake seismogenic structures for which historical and paleoseismic event data were available. With the time-dependent model, we calculated the distribution of peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in the next 50 years in Taiyuan and the surrounding area, and compared the results with those calculated using the time-independent model. The results showed that the entire area around Taiyuan has a higher seismic hazard with the time-dependent model than that with the time-independent model. The Jiaocheng and Hengshan faults have much higher seismic hazard. Applying the model only to Taiyuan showed that the city has higher seismic hazard with the time-dependent model than that with the time-independent model. In particular, in the western part of Taiyuan, the seismic hazard is quite high because of the proximity of the area to the Jiaocheng Fault.