Importance of vegetation processes for model spread in the fast precipitation response to CO2 forcing

In the current generation of climate models, the projected increase in global precipitation over the 21st century ranges from 2% to 10% under a high‐emission scenario. Some of this uncertainty can be traced to the rapid response to carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. We analyze an ensemble of simulations to better understand model spread in this rapid response. A substantial amount is linked to how the land surface partitions a change in latent versus sensible heat flux in response to the CO2‐induced radiative perturbation; a larger increase in sensible heat results in a larger decrease in global precipitation. Model differences in the land surface response appear to be strongly related to the vegetation response to increased CO2, specifically, the closure of leaf stomata. Future research should thus focus on evaluation of the vegetation physiological response, including stomatal conductance parameterizations, for the purpose of constraining the fast response of Earth's hydrologic cycle to CO2 forcing. Key Points Spread in the global fast precipitation response is linked to model differences in the land sensible and latent heat flux response Vegetation responses to CO2, particularly stomatal closure, cause substantial differences in the land heat flux response Future research should focus on evaluation of vegetation schemes to constrain spread in the fast precipitation response