Carrying capacity and potential environmental impact of fish farming in the cascade reservoirs of the Paranapanema River, Brazil

The objective of this study was to simulate changes in water quality standards caused by the installation of aquaculture parks for caged fish farming in the eight large artificial reservoirs in the Paranapanema River according to the different scenarios of technical and legal limitations: (i) occupancy of 1% of the total surface of the reservoirs and (ii) occupancy according to the environmental carrying capacity. For water quality modelling, these two scenarios were simulated to determine the trophic state index (TSI) of each reservoir. Based on the total area of all reservoirs in the first scenario, the fish farm facilities would occupy 18.3 km2 and have an annual fish production of an estimated 513 thousand MT. However, because of limitations in the carrying capacity, the annual production in the second scenario would be 98 thousand MT and the fish farm facilities would occupy 3.5 km2. Simulating the TSI for the first scenario, approximately 75% of the total area of all reservoirs was estimated to change from oligo or mesotrophic conditions to eutrophic, supereutrophic and hypereutrophic conditions, and four reservoirs may become completely eutrophic (Canoas 2, Canoas 1, Taquaruçu and Rosana). For the second scenario, however, eutrophic areas accounted for less than 30% of the total, although the Taquaruçu and Rosana reservoirs were still at risk of total eutrophication. These results indicate as well‐intentioned legislation can have unintended environmental consequences in dynamic social–ecological aquaculture systems as in the case of large reservoirs in the Paranapanema River.