Assessment of western Indian Ocean SST bias of CMIP5 models

The western Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) is among the key factors that affect precipitation over India and East Africa. This study examined the western Indian Ocean SST biases among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. It was found that the multimodel ensemble‐mean SST biases over the western equatorial Indian Ocean are warmer than the observations during the summer monsoon season. However, about half the models show positive SST biases, whereas negative ones in the other half. The models with warmer SST biases exhibit a pattern similar to the Indian Ocean Dipole, with stronger equatorial easterly wind biases during fall and a deeper thermocline in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In the models with cooler SST biases, negative SST biases are observed over the entire tropical Indian Ocean throughout the year and the wind biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean are southeasterly during summer and fall. Heat budget analysis revealed the importance of ocean currents in forming the early summer development of SST biases over the western equatorial Indian Ocean. The formation of SST biases is related to surface current biases induced by the weaker biases of southwesterly monsoon winds and SST biases over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean, which are advected by the East African Coastal Currents. On the other hand, almost of all the CMIP5 models show prominent cold SST biases over the northern Arabian Sea during the premonsoon season. The SST biases are induced by excess surface cooling during the winter monsoon season. Key Points This study examined the western Indian Ocean (IO) SST biases among CMIP5 models About half the models show positive SST biases over the western equatorial IO during summer whereas negative ones in the other half Heat budget analysis revealed the importance of ocean currents in the development of SST biases over western equatorial IO