Uma avaliação empírica do comportamento fiscal dos governos estaduais no período posterior à lei de responsabilidade fiscal (2002-2012) 1

This paper proposes an empirical evaluation of the state governments' fiscal behavior in the period following the Fiscal Responsibility Law. Measurement of fiscal shocks and estimations from dynamic panel data models of the main revenues and expenditures provided the following evidence for the period 2002-2012: i) fiscal adjustments were sustainable in most part of the period which can be explained by the positive relationship of state primaries revenues to the national activity; ii) main components of the primary spending proved rigid and were mainly described by autoregressive terms in the estimated equations; iii) states' tax revenues were positively impacted by growth in the share of the service sector in the product but did not show any significant relationship with the variation in the share of the industrial sector; and iv) revenues and expenditures were not affected by deviations of the yearly primary surplus targets set in the state budget laws.