Impact of the transition on the total factor productivity in Croatia 1/Utjecaj tranzicije na ukupnu faktorsku produktivnost u Hrvatskoj 1

The goal of this paper is to determine the impact of transition on the total factor productivity (TFP) in Croatia. Hypothesis of our paper is that transition had a positive impact on the growth rate of TFP and its share in the GDP growth. We employ growth accounting methodology to estimate TFP and structural break tests to estimate total number and location(s) of structural break(s) in the estimated TFP series. In order to test for the robustness of our results we combine different sets of assumptions and derive 18 different TFP series. The fundamental results of the paper imply that transition had a positive effect on the TFP growth rate, but it did not have statistically significant effect on the relative importance (share) of TFP in GDP growth rate. Structural break tests have indicated two statistically significant break locations in the TFP growth rate data. The first break in 1979 is closely connected with overall slowdown of growth, while the second break location in 1993 can be attributed to the transition reforms. Estimated locations of the structural breaks are robust over all 18 estimated TFP series. The basic conclusion from this research is that transition reforms have managed to spark the growth of the overall economy as well as TFP, but the relative importance of the TFP vis a vis other growth factors such as human or physical capital did not significantly change./Cilj ovog rada je istraziti utjecaj tranzicije na ukupnu faktorsku produktivnost (TFP) u Hrvatskoj. Hipoteza naseg rada jest da je tranzicija imala pozitivan utjecaj na stopu rasta TFP-a i njegov udio u rastu BDP-a. Koristimo metodologiju racunovodstva rasta za procjenu TFP-a i testove strukturnih prekida za procjenu ukupnog broja i mjesta strukturnog(ih) prekida u procijenjenim serijama TFP-a. Kako bismo ispitali robusnost nasih rezultata kombiniramo razlicite skupove pretpostavki te dobivamo 18 razlicitih TFP serija. Temeljni rezultati rada upucuju na to da je tranzicija imala pozitivan ucinak na stopu rasta TFP-a, ali nije imala statisticki znacajan utjecaj na relativu vaznost (udio) TFP-a u BDP-u. Testovi strukturnih prekida su pokazali dvije statisticki znacajne lokacije prekida u podacima stopa rasta TFP-a. Prvi prekid 1979.godine usko je povezan s opcim usporavanjem rasta, dok se druga lokacija prekida 1993.godine moze pripisati tranzicijskim reformama. Procjenjene lokacije strukturnih prekida su robusne za svih 18 procjenjenih TFP serija. Osnovni zakljucak ovog istrazivanja