TÜRKYYE'DE ENFLASYONUN KAYNAÐININ BELYRLENMESYNE YÖNELYK EKONOMETRYK BYR ANALYZ 1/AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THE SOURCE OF INFLATION IN TURKEY

In this study, the source of inflation in Turkey are tried to determine using econometric test methods. For this purpose, monthly nominal interest rates, CPI and PPI inflation rates series are used for the period 2003:2-2014:12. Relations between variables are analyzed with VAR block granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition methods. According to test re-sults, there is no relation found from the interest rates to the CPI inflation rates. This result indica-tes that the source of inflation is not demand side in Turkey. However, although there is a statisti-cal relation from the PPI inflation to CPI inflation, the factors, which are affecting production costs, have effective to increase CPI inflation except interest rates. In other words, in Turkey, the costs are more responsible from the source of inflation compared to demand during the investiga-tion period.