A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions

A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions

We compare the traditional method of eliciting probability distributions from laypeople with seven graphically-oriented interfaces. The most complicated of the graphical interfaces take less time than the traditional method, but produce more accurate results on both the individual and aggregate-leve...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Rothschild, David, Goldstein, Daniel G, Teschner, Florian
Format: Tagungsbericht
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Comparative analysis
Consumer behavior
Interfaces
Probability distribution
Studies
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:We compare the traditional method of eliciting probability distributions from laypeople with seven graphically-oriented interfaces. The most complicated of the graphical interfaces take less time than the traditional method, but produce more accurate results on both the individual and aggregate-level. Learning lowers the effort level for these complicated graphical interfaces.
ISSN:0098-9258