Qualitative and Quantitave Risk Evaluation on the Basis of Military Aviation Event Analysis

Risk management is understood as a process supporting decision making through systemic assessment of possible courses of action, identification of hazards and benefits, and indication of the best way to carry out aviation tasks. The article presents a method of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment on the basis of military aviation incident analysis. The procedure of the suggested approach is contained in a probability and severity degree estimation algorithm and in subsequent steps: of identifying the risk factor (CZN) of a given category, analysis of risk associated with a given CZN, determination of risk, defining correcting actions, risk forecasting and its verification over the following assessment period. A simplified block diagram presents a proposal of the implementation of a qualitative and quantitative risk estimation procedure with the use of the TURAWA IT system, which function in the air forces.