The role of regional economic integrations for trade margins: A case of Croatia /Uloga regionalnih ekonomskih integracija na trgovinske marze: slucaj Hrvatske

The goal of this investigation is to research the development of intensive and extensive trade margins on product-country level data for Croatia during the period 2000-2012. Hypothesis of our paper is that RTAs-induced trade liberalization will have heterogeneous effects on particular product groups with indirect implications on national welfare. Static and dynamic gravity trade models are used on panel data accounting for over 90% of total trade during the observed period. Estimations of the trade gravity model and trade margins showed that while SAA and CEFTA arrangements positively affected different measures of intensive and extensive trade margins, specially exports and imports of consumption products, effects on trade in intermediate and capital goods were relatively subdued. This suggests a tendency for market-seeking rather than efficiency-seeking behaviour of Croatia's trade sector. When comparing the results for two trade agreements using dynamic model, we find that SAA primarily affected trade in consumption goods while effects of CEFTA are more evenly dispersed across different product groups. Main conclusion of the paper is that Croatia's policy makers should try to keep the preferential status of Croatia within the CEFTA market in the medium term, focusing on the Croatian economy./Cilj ovog rada je istraziti razvoj intenzivnih i ekstenzivnih trgovinskih marzi na razini proizvod-drzava za slucaj Hrvatske od 2000. do 2012. godine. Hipoteza istrazivanja je da ce liberalizacija trgovine, potaknuta sklapanjem regionalnih trgovinskih sporazuma, imati heterogene ucinke na razlicite skupine proizvoda, uz indirektne ucinke na nacionalno blagostanje. Koristi se staticki i dinamicki gravitacijski model koji se primjenjuje na panel podatke koji obuhvacaju preko 90% ukupne trgovine u promatranom razdoblju. Ocjene gravitacijskog modela pokazuju da, iako su SAA i CEFTA sporazumi imali pozitivne ucinke na intenzivne i ekstenzivne trgovinske marze, posebice na izvoz i uvoz potrosackih proizvoda, ucinci na trgovinu intermedijarnim i kapitalnim dobrima su relativno ograniceni. To ukazuje da su navedeni sporazumi imali snazniji ucinak na zadovoljenje potreba potrosaca, a ne na porast ucinkovitosti domaceg trgovinskog sektora. Pri usporedbi rezultata ucinaka sporazuma koristeci dinamicki model, jasan je snazniji utjecaj SAA sporazuma na potrosacka dobra, dok su ucinci CEFTA sporazuma ujednaceni za sve skupine dobara. Zakljucak je da bi se, u srednjem roku, nosite