Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities

This paper establishes the existence of short-term political business cycles in the Philippines over the period 2003–2009. Examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre-electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following election...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of development economics 2016-07, Vol.121, p.56-62
1. Verfasser: Labonne, Julien
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description This paper establishes the existence of short-term political business cycles in the Philippines over the period 2003–2009. Examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre-electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following elections. Further results are consistent with the cycles being generated by incumbents' attempts to increase their chances of re-election. Cycles are stronger in sectors that incumbents are more able to influence, and when they expect stronger electoral competition. Evidence suggests that these cycles are detrimental to development.
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subjects Business cycles
Decentralization
Elections
Employment
Local economy
Municipalities
Studies
title Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities
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