Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities

This paper establishes the existence of short-term political business cycles in the Philippines over the period 2003–2009. Examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre-electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following elections. Further results are consistent with the cycles being generated by incumbents' attempts to increase their chances of re-election. Cycles are stronger in sectors that incumbents are more able to influence, and when they expect stronger electoral competition. Evidence suggests that these cycles are detrimental to development.