TROUBLE IN THE "NORTHERN TRIANGLE"

In Guatemala, a 2015 corruption scandal led to public protests and then the removal of the country's vice-president and president. Disgusted with traditional politicians and their parties, Guatemalans turned to a comic named Jimmy Morales, electing him president by an overwhelming 67% in an October runoff after he led the first round with 24% in a fourteen-candidate field. The Guatemalan predicament throws into relief some of the problems that beset democracy in Central America's so-called Northern Triangle (Guatemala plus Honduras and El Salvador). Guatemalan parties are all too often riddled with corruption, beholden to powerful individuals, and ineffective. Yet ousting or shattering them makes political fragmentation worse and can create dangerous political vacuums. Despite the Northern Triangle's chronically low levels of "human development" -- the bitter fruit of poor governance and a lack of public investment in social services -- the end of Cold War -- era civil conflicts led to widespread optimism regarding these countries.