Empirical modelling methods to identify issues of concern in a two-sided military system

We propose the notion of a ‘substrate’ model which can be used as a common and agreed picture to develop issues of concern in the problem-structuring phase of a study. Such a process provides a transparent and defensible means to develop prioritised options for consideration by decision makers. In this paper, we explore two empirical methods, one based on sequential examination of events in a process and the other uses a functional (influence diagram like) approach to explore how system features change with time. An example is taken from a current problem in the military sphere—the two-sided interaction involving the use of, and defence against, improvised explosive devices. In this paper, we illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the two modelling methods, the complementarity of the use of a more concrete ‘substrate model’ with the ‘softer’ aspects of problem structuring and the implications of the clients’ needs, in particular the position of the study within the typical Defence capability development life cycle. We believe that such empirical methods will have practical application to similar studies at the ‘front-end’.