“Phantom of the Opera” or “Sex and the City”? Historical amenities as sources of exogenous variation

Using the location of baroque opera houses as a natural experiment, Falck et al. (2011) claim to document a positive causal effect of the supply of cultural goods on the regional distribution of talents. This paper raises considerable doubts on the validity of the identification strategy underlying these estimates. While we are able to replicate the original results, we show that the same empirical strategy also assigns positive causal effects to the location of historical brothels and breweries. The estimated effects are similar in size and significance to those of historical opera houses. We document that these estimates reflect the importance of institutions for long-run economic growth, and that the effect of historical amenities on the contemporary local share of high skilled workers disappears upon controlling for regions' historical importance. •The empirical analysis seriously doubts the causality claimed by Falck et al. (2011).•German baroque operas cannot serve a quasi-natural experiment.•Historical brothels and breweries generate similar results which are not seriously causal.•Large cities and administrative centers eliminate opera effects in several estimation strategies.•The institutional importance of cities is a driving force of ongoing prosperity.