A lag between temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on a simple coupled model of climate and the carbon cycle

Determination of the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the modern climate change is one of the key problems of the 21st century. The objective of this work is to estimate the degree of the cause and effect correlations in the Earth system (ES) that can be judged from the time shifts in the time series of data, in particular, in the data on the temperature and 2 concentration in the atmosphere. The data of ice cores used to reconstruct climate changes in the Pleistocene, in particular, the glacia tion cycles, reveal a general time lag of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere q relative to the variations in the surface temperature T (see, for example, [13]).