Structural Conditions and Democratization

We analyze patterns in three structural factors widely associated with democratization prospects—income, ethnic fragmentation and state quality. We find that while the profile of both fully democratic and closed autocratic regimes has improved since the 1980s, hybrid regimes have deteriorated. Moreover, the impact of structural conditions varies by regime type: multiple structural weaknesses push hybrids and democracies in an authoritarian direction but undermine the consolidation of authoritarian regimes. By contrast, favorable structural conditions facilitate democratization in hybrid regimes but undermine it in autocracies. Overall, these patterns suggest a new wave of successful democratization is unlikely in the medium term.