IMPROVING AND PROMOTING SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTION

Some models evaluated within the recent ISHVE show predictive skill up to 20-30 days and potential predictability between 31 and 45 days (Fig. 1). [...]while MJO forecast skill has increased considerably over the last decade, there is room for further improvement. The CPC issues a Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook that currently uses MJO indices as predictors (e.g., certain phases of the MJO are known to increase or decrease the risk of tropical cyclone activity over some basins), and there are plans to use the direct outputs of the NCEP subseasonal forecasts to produce these maps in the future.