Seismic hazard assessment of Kashmir and Kangra valley region, Western Himalaya, India

A complete earthquake catalogue of the Western Himalaya (latitudes 30°N-36°N and longitudes 72°E-78°E) for the period of 1501-2010 has been compiled with earthquake magnitude computed in moment magnitude (Mw) scale. Pre- and early twentieth century records of earthquake damage have been documented from rare and out of print publications. Seismotectonics and seismic hazard for Kohistan arc, Kashmir-Hazara Syntaxis, Nanga-Parbat (Western Syntaxis), Karakoram and Himachal Himalaya are discussed with special reference to 1905 Kangra and 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquakes. Analyses of spatio-temporal variation in b-value from the region indicate significant precursor prior to the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake; progressive rise of background b-value observed and the main shock locates close to relative high b-value domains. Regions surrounding the location of the 1905 Kangra earthquake also display such high b-value for the period of 2005-2010 that calls for closer scrutiny. Temporal analysis of b-value from the epicentral block of Muzaffarabad earthquake clearly showed a high-low b-value couplet of 1.45-0.72, which may be treated as a typical precursor before an imminent large earthquake. Gumbel extreme value statistics indicate probability of occurrence of an event of Mw > 7.0 within 50 years in the region.