The use of scenarios in the formulation and analysis of policies for the public sector

This study reviews the use of the scenario construction technique as a tool for the formulation and analysis of public policies. The importance of this technique is emphasized because it allows the identification of the relevant elements and the relationships between them, providing an adequate subsidy for decision-making. Particularly for the definition of government strategies, the technique allows the analysts and decision-makers to study a number of possible alternative future scenarios. The article proposes the adoption of expert opinion for the generation of future scenarios in the context of a delphi type survey and cross-impact analysis.