Türkiye'de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Iliskisi: Yapisal Kirilmali Zaman Serisi Analizi/Relationship Between Energy Consumption And Economic Growth In Turkey: Time Series Analysis With Structural Break

Recently, energy has become one of the most basic inputs of social and economic development. Considering that the energy resources like coal, natural gas and fuel (ect) are limited resources, it is hard to ignore the necessity of using them efficiently. All the countries need to produce healthy and determined energy policies which are not ignoring the future of energy usage. Energy is an indispensable product factor for the large scale industrial facilities and so developed and developing countries attribute a great importance to production and consumption processes of energy. Owing to this contribution on economic growth, energy has accepted as a development criteria. Because of the increasing importance of energy, the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth has been examined by many researches. The situation is much harder for the countries which are not able to produce their own needs, like Turkey. They should to develop more strategic approaches to the energy issue. Turkey has one of the highest fuel prices on earth. By means of the taxes have been put on the prices. In such a country it is considered necessary to examine the effects of these taxes which have been put on the inputs like, electricity of natural gas on manufacturing industries. Manufacturers in a country of high energy costs, might become incomponent in global markets, so that they limit their efforts with their domestic markets and thus, they might be diminishing their production dramatically. The aim of this study is, to examine the relationship in between energy consumption and economic growth in the time period of 1970-2009 with annual data, trough 'Structural Break Models'. The data of Real Gross Domestic Product, Gross domestic Capital Formation and Exports were taken from website of World Bank, the data of total energy consumption were taken from website of World Energy Council. For this purpose, at first Zivot-Andrews Structural Break Unit Root Test has been conducted and it is determined that the series are stationary in the first difference I(1). Then as the second step, Gregory-Hansen Structural Break Co-integration Analysis has been conducted and a long term co-integration has been found between the series. This cointegration has shown that at least one causality relationship could be found between the series. Next, Granger Causality Analysis has been conducted and several one sided causality relationships has been found, from RGDP to capital, from ener