A gazdagsági stagnálás "színe" és fonákja: Mivel jár együtt az exporttöbblet és az adósságcsökkenés?

Hungary over the last few years has reported large and increasing surpluses in its balance of trade, and also become a net lender to the rest of the world, as revealed by surpluses on the current and capital account of the balance of payments. These developments are mirrored by significant deficits (capital outflows) on the financial account, and by a fall in the external indebtedness of the private sector and the whole country. However, the external performance rests on poor performance by the economy in terms of income, consumption and investments - partly explained by de-leveraging in the private sector. So it makes little sense to rejoice at the trade surplus while bemoaning the capital outflows and low (and decreasing) investment rate. They reveal different sides of the same story, where the various aspects relate to each other in macroeconomic accounting identities. In aiming to quantify these relations by international comparison, the paper also points out that capital outflows should not be confused with "capital flight", of which no evidence was found. It is noted that private investments and net capital consumption fell to extremely low levels. Without a turn in investment activity there is no hope of maintaining export growth and revitalizing domestic demand. However, growth in investment is likely to decrease net exports, which may impede economic growth.