Modelling the transition towards a green economy in South Africa

This paper presents the results of an analysis carried out using an integrated system dynamics model customised to South Africa, which was developed to study the contribution of technology policies to a green economy transition in South Africa. Two business-as-usual scenarios (BAU1 and BAU2) and two green economy scenarios (GE2% and GETS) were simulated. The results show that green economy interventions impact positively on the main indicators selected across sectors: reducing emissions, lowering the dependence on fossil fuels, particularly for the power sector, and contributing to a more sustainable utilisation of natural resources. Further, it is determined that investments in low carbon development and ecosystem services management also yield a more resilient economic growth in the medium and longer terms. •The paper presents results from South Africa Green Economy Model (SAGEM).•The analysis began with four sectors with potential to contribute to green economy.•Results of two business as usual and two green economy scenarios are presented.•Green economy interventions positively impact on main indicators for the four sectors.