A machine learning framework for TCP round-trip time estimation: Doc 889

In this paper, we explore a novel approach to end-to-end round-trip time (RTT) estimation using a machine-learning technique known as the experts framework. In our proposal, each of several 'experts' guesses a fixed value. The weighted average of these guesses estimates the RTT, with the weights updated after every RTT measurement based on the difference between the estimated and actual RTT. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed machine-learning algorithm adapts very quickly to changes in the RTT. Our results show a considerable reduction in the number of retransmitted packets and an increase in goodput, especially in more heavily congested scenarios. We corroborate our results through 'live' experiments using an implementation of the proposed algorithm in the Linux kernel. These experiments confirm the higher RTT estimation accuracy of the machine learning approach which yields over 40% improvement when compared against both standard transmission control protocol (TCP) as well as the well known Eifel RTT estimator. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first attempt to use on-line learning algorithms to predict network performance and, given the promising results reported here, creates the opportunity of applying on-line learning to estimate other important network variables.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]