Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.