What a coincidence! It's not as unlikely as you think

Evelyn Evans of New Jersey won the lottery – twice. A stranger at a party may have something unlikely in common with us. It is human nature to believe such coincidences are rare. However, Byron Jones and Robb Muirhead explain that they are common, and that we should be much more surprised if we never heard about them. People are not good at assessing probabilities, and we often do not ask the right or appropriate questions.