Influence of stochastic processes and catastrophic events on the reproductive dynamics of the endangered Maroon‐fronted Parrot Rhynchopsitta terrisi

Stochastic and catastrophic events may strongly impact the dynamics of wild populations. Annual fluctuations in rainfall may affect parrot populations, but few studies address the impact of other stochastic or catastrophic events on their population dynamics. The Maroon‐fronted Parrot Rhynchopsitta terrisi is an endangered species that nests colonially in cavities and crevices in limestone cliffs. From 1995 to 2010, we quantified Parrot attendance at nesting colonies throughout its breeding range, and reproductive output of nesting Parrots from 1997 to 2010 at the two most important nesting colonies. There was significant variation among colonies in the number of cavities occupied by Parrots each year. Rainfall significantly influenced both the number of occupied cavities and productivity, which declined after very dry years. Natural unpredictable events such as hurricanes did not modify the nesting activity of Maroon‐fronted Parrots at breeding colonies. However, wildfires increased in dry years, negatively affecting attendance at breeding colonies. The Maroon‐fronted Parrot may overcome the impacts of climatic variability, natural stochastic processes, and human‐induced catastrophic events by using nesting colonies as a network of resources throughout the breeding range. Given the current trends in climate change, it is likely the species may suffer stronger and more frequent unpredictable catastrophic events, potentially putting at risk its survival in the long term.