Forecasting and Capacity Planning for Nogales Port of Entry

Trade between the United States and Mexico continues to grow, and has nearly returned to pre-recession levels. Hence, concerns as to the capacity of ports of entry are now returning to transportation planners' agendas. This article illustrates the formulation of a forecasting process to produce short- and long-range freight forecasts for border-crossing truck volumes even when seasonality is a concern. This forecasting process depends on relatively few input variables and thus should serve as a useful tool for border transportation and infrastructure planners. The article covers the choice of forecasting model, the selection of input variables, and scenario applications, using actual data from the Mariposa Port of Nogales, Arizona, to drive our choices and validate the forecasting model. The article closes with suggestions for improving both inputs to the forecasting model and the model itself, as well as drawing implications for more detailed investigations on overall drivers of border-crossing volumes.