IKTISADI KRIZLER, DOGAL AFETLER, TERÖR FAALIYETLERI TÜRKIYE'YE GELEN TURISTLER ÜZERINDE ETKILI MI?/Economic Crises, Natural Disasters and Terrorist Attacks: Are shocks to Turkey's tourist arrivals permanent?

Over the last three decades Turkey has experienced major shocks like economic crises, terrorism incidents and natural disasters which have effect on the international tourist arrivals to Turkey. This study investigates whether these shocks have permanent effect on the growth path of the tourist arrivals to Turkey from its major markets, by employing Kapetanios (2005) unit root test which allow structural breaks in the data generation process. We employ monthly data from 1996 to 2012 for the tourist arrivals from Turkey's ten major markets which obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute. The results of our analysis show that the visitor arrivals from Austria, Iran and Russia are not mean-reverting which imply that the shocks have permanent effects on these series. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]