The Research on the Adaptation of Grain Production in China to Climate Changes Based on Structural Equation Model

This paper uses the year data from 1998 to 2009, according to the MIMIC model in structure equation model to construct the adaptability system model of China's climate change to grain production, and makes an empirical research, found that sows area, the consumption of chemical fertilizers, agricultural water conservancy construction expenditure and the rainfall affects the maximum on grain production yield fluctuation of our country ; then according to the estimation results calculated the latent variable intensity fluctuation of grain yield, found that the grain production fluctuation of output intensity in future is further toward the positive trend.