UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions com...

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Veröffentlicht in:Artificial satellites 2010-01, Vol.45 (2), p.111-118
Hauptverfasser: Tissen, Victor, Tolstikov, Alexander, Malkin, Zinovy
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
autoregression
Earth orientation parameters
Earth rotation
polyharmonic model
Universal time (UT1)
UT1 prediction
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Zusammenfassung:A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.
ISSN:0208-841X
1509-3859
2083-6104
DOI:10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9