Some issues in the current debate about energy and natural resources

“Zero-growth policies to restore the planet to long-term physical equilibrium or reliance upon market forces to achieve equilibrium between demand and supply?” This sums up the opposing views in the current debate about resources and the environment. Unfortunately, both viewpoints show a disregard for the social and political implications and the uncertainties surrounding their basic assumptions. This article argues that little reliance can be placed upon the published estimates of world fuel and mineral resources, that the assumption of long-term exponential growth in demand for resources is highly contentious, and that it would be unwise to forego the fruits of economic growth owing to a rather remote possibility that global resource depletion may occur in the distant future. Long-term projections are necessary to illustrate what the future may hold, but Malthusian or any other computer models should not be substituted for policy choices. As far as possible, policies should take account of uncertainty and risk and the problems likely to arise from rising prices of fuels and minerals resources and from the location of the bulk of the known reserves of some resources in a few countries. Not least, the aim should be to pursue paths of economic growth which place lighter demands upon the earth's resources and to open desirable technical options for the future through research and development.