Limiting EC grain substitute imports: A simulation model of the West German manufactured feed economy

Summary EC measures to limit grain substitute imports are evaluated using a simulation model of the West German northern and southern manufactured feed economy, including ingredient supply and compound feed demand functions. These results show that restrictions on manioc or corn gluten feed imports have only limited success in increasing feedgrain demand by West German feed manufacturers. The impact of changes in ration composition favouring grains are dampened by the accompanying higher finished ration costs. In contrast, lowered grain prices lead not so much to changed ration composition as to lowered finished ration prices and a resulting increased demand for the final product.