Probabilistic contingency theories of animal conditioning: A critical analysis

Seven contingency theories of classical and instrumental conditioning were defined in relation to the contingency matrix and to six separate probabilities which can be derived from this matrix. These theories were compared on the basis of formal similarities and differences, and were judged against three separate empirical variables which have been discussed in the contingency literature: the duration of the intertrial interval, partial reinforcement, and negative contingencies between the two events of conditioning. All previous theories had some difficulty predicting the effects of one or more of these variables upon animal conditioning. Also, some formulas make the unusual prediction that there will be less conditioning when there is more than one conditioning trial. The paper concluded with an extensive discussion of the problems that are created by conditioning events with temporal extension; events which are then categorized by a contingency matrix which has no temporal character. Some possible solutions to the problems were discussed.