Output and Unanticipated Money with Imported Intermediate Goods and Foreign Exchange Rationing (Production et variations imprévues de la masse monétaire dans le contexte de produits intermédiaires importés et d'un rationnement des devises) (Producción y dinero no anticipado con bienes intermedios importados y racionamiento de las divisas)

Short-run fluctuations in the growth of real output are an important concern of policymakers in developing countries. And yet, in spite of the considerable amount of attention that this subject has received in the context of industrial countries during the past fifty years, surprisingly little analytical--much less empirical--work has been done for developing countries. For the industrial countries, the advent of "new classical" macroeconomics has shaken the consensus about the causes of short-run output fluctuations. Successful estimation of reduced-form output equations generated by "new classical" models contributed to the acceptance of these models. It is natural, therefore, to extend this framework to the explanation of short-run output fluctuations in developing countries, and this has been done by several authors. However, structural features that are likely to be particularly important in the developing country context have typically been either ignored or introduced in an arbitrary fashion. This paper develops a simple "new classical" structural model that includes several features likely to be of importance in developing countries. The economy is modeled as an open economy along Mundell-Fleming lines, imported intermediate goods are introduced, and foreign exchange is assumed to be rationed. A reduced-form output equation is derived from this model, which is a generalization of its closed economy analogue. After the properties of the model are analyzed, the reduced-form output equation is estimated for the Philippines. The empirical results conform quite closely to the predictions of the model. /// Les fluctuations à court terme de la croissance de la production réelle sont une préoccupation importante des dirigeants des pays en développement. Pourtant, malgré toute l'attention que cette question a reçue dans le contexte des pays industrialisés au cours des cinquante dernières années, les travaux analytiques, et plus encore les travaux empiriques, sur ce sujet, ont été étonnamment limités en ce qui concerne les pays en développement. Dans les pays industrialisés, l'avènement de la nouvelle macroéconomie "classique" a ébranlé le consensus qui régnait quant aux causes des fluctuations à court terme de la production. L'exactitude des estimations d'équations de forme réduite de la production effectuées dans les modèles "classiques" a contribué à faire accepter ces derniers. Il est par conséquent naturel d'élargir le cadre de ces modèles à l'explicati