Modeling the 2003 Halloween events with EMMREM: Energetic particles, radial gradients, and coupling to MHD

The Earth‐Moon‐Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) is a comprehensive numerical framework for characterizing and predicting the radiation environment of the inner heliosphere. We present a study of the October/November 2003 Halloween solar energetic particle events with an energetic particle acceleration and propagation model that is part of EMMREM, highlighting the current ability of the framework to make predictions at various locations of the inner heliosphere. We compare model predictions with Ulysses observations of protons at energies above 10 MeV in order to obtain realistic proton fluxes and calculate radial gradients for peak fluxes, event fluences, and radiation dosimetric quantities. From our study, we find that a power law with an index of −3.55 at energy of 200 MeV describes the time‐integrated energetic proton fluence dependence on radial distances beyond 1 AU for the 2003 Halloween events, and an index of −4.18 is appropriate for peak proton fluxes at that energy. Calculations of radiation doses based on these simulations show average power law indices of −4.32 and −3.64 for peak dose rates and accumulated doses, respectively. In an effort to improve the predictions, we have coupled our kinetic code to results from a 3‐D heliospheric magnetohydrodynamic model, WSA/Enlil. While predictions with the coupled model overall show worse agreement than simulations with steady state solar wind conditions for these large events, the capability to couple energetic particle propagation and numerical models of the solar wind is an important step in the future development of space weather modeling.