Evolving sophistication of trade patterns in a transition economy - machinery exports of Poland 1980-2009

Polish history leads to an expectation of exceptional adaptability to changes in the international economic environment. In the period beginning with Solidarity at Gdansk to the present, Poland has faced huge structural dislocations. Any objective indication that the structural changes needed to successfully compete as a full-fledged European Union member were forthcoming. This study examines the behavior of four separate measures of embodied "sophistication." Though methodologically unrelated, these disparate indices tell a common story of rapid and substantial progress in the "battlefield" of a new member of the European Union. This paper applies several mutually independent statistical tests to examine the hypothesis that Poland reacted to the major shift in its international economic environment flexibly, rapidly, and rationally. The results obtained from all five tests support the assumption that this transition was accomplished in a relatively short period of time despite the major disruptive changes called for by the nature of the new competitive challenges.