A Theory of Domestic Contagion Effects

Chapter 2 lays out the two key questions the book asks and answers. First, when do leaders fear that a revolution abroad will infect their own polity? It argues that the fear of contagion is more the product of the host than the infecting revolutionary agent. Leaders fear contagion effects when they have significant revolutionary movements of the same character as the revolutionary state. Whether the revolutionary state has a policy of exporting revolution is not the critical factor. Second, what are the international effects of this fear of revolutionary contagion? When leaders have these contagion concerns, they will be hostile toward the revolutionary state and cooperate with states that have similar concerns, sometimes in contrast to geopolitical pressures. The chapter describes how the theory will be tested and provides a preview of the findings.