New Players, New Institutions

The great Spanish and Portuguese empires were already beginning to struggle in the 17th century, as new and determined rivals began to emerge, mostly in northern Europe. The process allowing principal new players gradually to gain superiority over southern Europe, not only in military terms, but more importantly in economic, social and institutional terms, is known as the "Little Divergence". The leading role of southern Europe, particularly Italy, lasted throughout the Middle Ages, and was threatened at certain stages only by the Hanseatic cities of the Baltic coast and by Flanders. The first line of demographic interpretation to mention relates to the theories of demographer John Hajnal. He argued that some social institutions typical of Western Europe, particularly the relatively late age at marriage, allowed more effective regulation of fertility, thus leading to a gradual improvement in living standards and a more rapid accumulation of human capital.