Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we f...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Fund, International Monetary, Johnson, Marianne, Clinton, Kevin
Format: Buch
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Cyclical Government Deficits
Economic forecasting
Economic Growth
Economic Models
Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009
Government Debt
Industrial Production
Output Gap
Potential Output
Structural Government Deficits
Unemployment
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.