The role of socio-economic disparities in the relative success and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in New York City in early 2021

Socio-economic disparities were associated with disproportionate viral incidence between neighborhoods of New York City (NYC) during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated how these disparities affected the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants during the second wave in NYC. We tested for correlation between the prevalence, in late 2020/early 2021, of Alpha, Iota, Iota with E484K mutation (Iota-E484K), and B.1-like genomes and pre-existing immunity (seropositivity) in NYC neighborhoods. In the context of varying seroprevalence we described socio-economic profiles of neighborhoods and performed migration and lineage persistence analyses using a Bayesian phylogeographical framework. Seropositivity was greater in areas with high poverty and a larger proportion of Black and Hispanic or Latino residents. Seropositivity was positively correlated with the proportion of Iota-E484K and Iota genomes, and negatively correlated with the proportion of Alpha and B.1-like genomes. The proportion of persisting Alpha lineages declined over time in locations with high seroprevalence, whereas the proportion of persisting Iota-E484K lineages remained the same in high seroprevalence areas. During the second wave, the geographic variation of standing immunity, due to disproportionate disease burden during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in NYC, allowed for the immune evasive Iota-E484K variant, but not the more transmissible Alpha variant, to circulate in locations with high pre-existing immunity.