Projected health and economic effects of the increase in childhood obesity during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: The potential cost of inaction

The prevalence of overweight and obesity in young children rose sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we estimate the potential future health and economic effects of these trends in England. Using publicly available annual Body Mass Index (BMI) data from 2006-2022, we calculated the increase in overweight/obesity prevalence (BMI ≥85th reference percentile) during the COVID-19 pandemic among children aged 4-5 and 10-11, and variation by deprivation and ethnicity. We projected the impact of child BMI trends on adult health measures to estimate added lifelong medical and social costs. During 2020-2021 there were steep increases in overweight and obesity prevalence in children. By 2022, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 4-5 returned to expected levels based on pre-pandemic trends. However, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 10-11 persisted and was 4 percentage points (p