Modelled impact of Tiny Targets on the distribution and abundance of riverine tsetse

The insecticide-treated baits known as Tiny Targets are one of the cheapest means of controlling riverine species of tsetse flies, the vectors of the trypanosomes that cause sleeping sickness in humans. Models of the efficacy of these targets deployed near rivers are potentially useful in planning control campaigns and highlighting the principles involved. To evaluate the potential of models, we produced a simple non-seasonal model of the births, deaths, mobility and aging of tsetse, and we programmed it to simulate the impact of seven years of target use against the tsetse, Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, in the riverine habitats of NW Uganda. Particular attention was given to demonstrating that the model could explain three matters of interest: (i) good control can be achieved despite the degradation of targets, (ii) local elimination of tsetse is impossible if invasion sources are not tackled, and (iii) with invasion and target degradation it is difficult to detect any effect of control on the age structure of the tsetse population. Despite its simplifications, the model can assist planning and teaching, but allowance should be made for any complications due to seasonality and management challenges associated with greater scale.