Pre-service factors associated with sexual misconduct among male U.S. Marines

Sexual assault is a prevalent and persistent problem in the military, yet few studies have examined predictors of sexual offenses. The study aim was to determine pre-service factors associated with sexual offense conviction among U.S. Marines. This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from male active duty U.S. Marines (2003-2018). Pre-service factors were assessed using survey data from the Recruit Assessment Program, obtained prior to recruit training at the Marine Corps Recruit Depot, San Diego, California. These survey data were linked with sexual offense conviction data obtained from the Naval Criminal Investigative Service Consolidated Law Enforcement Operations Center. Of the 146,307 participants, the majority were 18-19 years old (66.7%) and non-Hispanic, White (62.1%) with a high school education or less (76.8%); 107 received convictions for a sexual offense. In unadjusted analyses, race and ethnicity, parental education, type of primary caregiver, parental death, family economic status, childhood emotional trauma, childhood physical abuse, childhood sexual abuse, and unprotected sex were associated with a sexual offense conviction. In the final multivariable model, race and ethnicity (American Indian/Alaskan Native, odds ratio [OR]: 5.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.86-14.98; Hispanic, OR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.06-3.18; multiracial/other, OR: 3.28, 95% CI: 1.56-6.89), education (≤ high school, OR: 2.65; 95% CI: 1.21-5.80), parental death (OR: 2.27; 95% CI: 1.16-4.45), unprotected sex (OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.03-3.05), and school suspension/expulsion (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.02-2.65) were significant predictors of a subsequent sexual offense conviction. Results underscore the importance of understanding factors associated with sexual offense and highlight the large discrepancy between self-reported estimates of sexual assault and sexual offense convictions. Findings may inform the development of effective strategies to reduce sexual misconduct, such as technology-facilitated programs that provide private, targeted education; supportive assistance; and prevention materials to individuals who may have elevated sexual misconduct risk.