The association between trajectories of risk factors and risk of cardiovascular disease or mortality among patients with diabetes or hypertension: A systematic review

Cardiometabolic risk factors and renal function are monitored regularly for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM)/ hypertension (HT). In addition to risk factor levels at a single time point, their trajectory (changes over time) can also be differentially related to the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and mortality. This study aimed to systematically examine the evidence regarding the association between risk factor trajectories and risk of CVD/mortality in patients with DM/HT. PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched for articles from January 1963 to April 2021. Inclusion criteria: studies that 1) analyzed trajectories of risk factors including haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index (BMI), and blood lipids; 2) were performed in the DM/HT population and, 3) included risk of CVD/mortality as outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale. A total of 22,099 articles were identified. After screening by title and abstract, 22,027 articles were excluded by irrelevant outcomes, exposure, population, or type of articles. Following full-text screening, 11 articles investigating the trajectories of HbA1c (N = 7), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (N = 3), and eGFR (N = 1) were included for data extraction and analysis. No studies were identified examining the association of BMI or lipid trajectories with CVD/mortality. All included studies were of good quality based on the NOS criteria. In general, stable trajectories within optimal ranges of the risk factors (HbA1c: 60mL/min/1.73m2) had the lowest CVD/mortality risk compared to an increasing HbA1c trajectory (from 8% to 10%), an increasing SBP trajectory (from 120-139 to ≥140mmHg), or a decreasing eGFR trajectory (from 90 to 70mL/min/1.73m2). A relatively stable and well-controlled trajectory for cardiometabolic risk factors was associated with the lowest risk of CVD/mortality. Risk factor trajectories have important clinical implications in addition to single time point measurements. More attention should be given to patients with suboptimal control and those with unstable trends of cardiometabolic risk factors.